Swapping planes in Dubai, Doha or Abu Dhabi? Holiday in the UAE or Oman? On a cruise to or from the Gulf?
The killings have raised tensions across the Middle East, and Iran has vowed to take revenge. Various travellers may feel apprehensive. The British and US authorities advise their citizens in the key tourist destinations of UAE and Oman to be observant. However, for the travel industry, it appears to be business as usual, with regular policies applying for changes and cancellations.
Key questions and answers everybody must know.
How many British travellers are on holiday in the region?
From Foreign Office figures combined with flight patterns, I estimate that around 30,000 UK tourists are on holiday in the UAE, a further 3500 in Oman and 2500 in Qatar, with smaller numbers in Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Iran. Perhaps 40,000 UK holidaymakers and British citizens live and work in the region. For example, the Foreign Office says more than 100,000 UK expatriates live in the UAE, with a further 20,000 in Qatar. Many more British travellers are changing plans at Gulf hubs, particularly Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha.
What does the UK government advise after the US attack?
Late on Saturday, January 4, the Foreign Office updated its travel advice to all countries in the region with the same paragraph: "Following the death of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in US strike in Baghdad on January 3, Briths nationals in the area must remain vigilant and thus keep up dated with the latest developments including via the media and this travel advice."
Iran and Iraq are the only countries bordering the Gulf on the Foreign Office's "no go" list. However, there are longstanding concerns about terrorism in the UAE. The Foreign Office has been saying for some time that an attack is likely. It warns that possible targets include "oil, transport and aviation interests as well as crowded places including restaurants, hotels, beaches, shopping centres and mosques." At its close point, Dubai is about 100 miles from Iran's coast across the Gulf. A statement from the American embassy in the UAE says: "US citizens are strongly encouraged to maintain a high level of vigilance and practice good situational awareness."
For Qatar and Oman, the Foreign Office says: "Terrorist attacks can't be ruled out. Attacks could be indiscriminate, including in places visited by foreigners."
What are the options for holidays booked in Dubai?
Unless the Foreign Office were to warn against travel to the UAE, which is an unlikely event, there would be no legal right for passengers to change their plans without penalty. This applies to Dubai, Abu Dhabi, ras Al Khaimah and elsewhere. The Package Travel regulations that govern holidays from the UK say that if the travel organiser cannot deliver what was booked because of unavoidable and extraordinary circumstances, you are entitled to a full refund. However, flights to Dubai and elsewhere in the region continue as planned, and the UAE's tourism infrastructure usually works.
If booked a stopover Abu Dhabi/Doha/ en route to final destination, can the destination be switched to an immediate departure?
There is no automatic right to do so, and a hefty fee might be payable. A spokesperson for Abu Dhabi-based Etihad said: "Our operations are continuing normally. As always, we continue to monitor regional developments and are in close contact with aviation regulations. No special arrangements are in place." A Qatar spokesperson said: "As the safety of our passengers and employees is of the highest importance, Qatar Airways continues to monitor the situation in Iraq closely and is currently operating normal scheduled services."
Can we switch flights to a direct flight because of the circumstances?
If your airline cancels either leg with no immediate alternative, you might be rebooked on a direct flight but do not have an automatic right to change.
Can we rebook on a different routing?
You could choose not to travel or select a route that avoids the region, for example, on Aeroflot via Moscow or Ethiopian Airlines via Addis Ababa. But you would lose all the money for your original flight.
What about cruises?
In August 2019, P and O Cruises cancelled its entire winter 2019-20 Gulf cruise programme because of concerns about potential attacks. At the time, some observers said that teh fact that P and O is a notionally British company and uses the Union flag prominently could increase the risk of being targeted. A spokesperson for PandO Cruises said: "Itineraries are due to resume at the end of 2020 but will take advice from authorities, and if changes are necessary, then we will advise guests as soon as possible." All travel firms appear to be sticking to their regular cancellation change policies.
What about overflights of the region?
That is a severe concern for the aviation industry. Much European Asia traffic is routed via the Gulf, with flight paths typically crossing Iraq and Iran. If airlines decide to reroute them, it will lead to longer journeys, missed connections, and higher fuel costs. If your flight is affected, the airline must find a solution.
Could the hajj be affected?
Thousands of British Muslims are expected to pilgrimage to Mecca in Saudi Arabia in 2020. However, as it will only occur in late July/early August, it is too early to say if and how travel will be affected.
Would you go to the Gulf right now?
I rate the risks of travelling to the UAE or other Gulf countries such as Oman and Bahrain as tolerably low. However, an attack cannot be ruled out.
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